The Impact of China-U.S. Relations on the Semiconductor Industry

The alternation of tension and detente in China-U.S. relations profoundly impacts the global semiconductor industry's supply chains, technological R&D, and market structure, while also driving the industry's regionalization and domestic development. Details are as follows:

Supply chain restructuring, enterprises caught in a dilemma: The U.S. has previously introduced policies such as the "50% penetration rule" to restrict chips containing U.S. technology from flowing to China, and cracked down on TSMC's mainland factories through a three-month approval system; in response, China imposed rare earth export controls—TSMC relies on mainland China for 96% of its rare earth supply, putting it under pressure from both sides. However, after both sides suspended relevant restrictive measures in 2025, the tension in the global semiconductor supply chain eased, giving related enterprises in China and South Korea a breathing space.

Technological R&D shows a confrontation between "blockade" and "breakthrough": The U.S. has continuously allied with partners to expand the scope of restrictions on semiconductor equipment exports to China, and included advanced manufacturing processes, HBM and other fields in its control, attempting to curb China's technological development. But this has instead accelerated China's semiconductor domestic substitution process—domestic lithography machines have entered wafer fab testing, key links such as EDA and semiconductor equipment have made continuous breakthroughs, and orders for domestic semiconductor equipment have kept increasing.

 Fluctuations and adjustments in market structure and trade rules: After the China-U.S. economic and trade talks in 2025, both sides canceled 91% of the additional tariffs related to semiconductors, and restored normal tariff levels for specific products such as memory chips and optical modules, reducing the import costs of related enterprises. However, most of these tariff adjustments are phased measures, and the U.S.'s new tariff plan targeting chips has not yet been clarified, forcing enterprises to optimize their supply chain layout during the window period to cope with subsequent policy uncertainties.

The industry development model shifts to regionalization: The China-U.S. game has transformed the global semiconductor industry from "efficiency first" to "security first", gradually forming a new regionalized pattern of tripartite confrontation among North America, Asia, and Europe. For example, the U.S. has promoted TSMC to build factories locally, attempting to transfer advanced manufacturing processes and technical talents inward; China has consolidated mature manufacturing processes and expanded international cooperation, with various regions strengthening the independence and security of their own industrial chains.